At the time I am writing this, the House had just passed a $95 billion aid package to provide security assistance to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan as well as develop security infrastructure in the Indo-Pacific. The bill was notable because it had the support of some Republicans who were previously against Ukraine aid measures, such as Speaker of the House Mike Johnson.
This is especially critical given the current state of the war. Many politicians – mostly Republicans, but also some Democrats – have been quick to point out the current state of the conflict and the fact Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s stated war aims are pretty much impossible. Therefore, implementing a ceasefire and initiating peace negotiations should be our goal, rather than sending additional aid to Ukraine. However, this is a viewpoint that is mistaken.
Although there was a time where I was afraid to admit out loud that Ukraine would be unable to achieve all of its war aims (for fear of speaking this thought into being), at no point did I even question whether weapons should be sent to Ukraine. The fact of the matter is the Ukrainian armed forces always have a need for more ammunition.
Even when on the backfoot, artillery shells are needed to provide cover for troops under assault. Bullets and guns are needed to properly equip new recruits and draftees. Air defense weaponry and missiles are needed, not just to protect cities, but also to shield combat units from attack. Currently, Ukrainian air defenses find themselves stuck choosing between protecting innocent civilians and their fellow troops.
Despite the heroism of its soldiers and their superior conduct during the beginning of the war, Ukraine and its backers find themselves at a crossroads. The sheer size of both the industrial base (Russian, North Korean, Iranian and Chinese) backing Russian forces, as well as the number of Russian soldiers themselves, combined with the lessons learned from the atrocious tactical and strategic mistakes made during the beginning of the war mean Ukraine was always doomed to be at a severe disadvantage at some point.
When hope for a positive outcome is lost, is it reasonable for the United States to abandon arming Ukraine completely? Absolutely not. Additional ammunition, especially for artillery and air defense weaponry, helps Ukraine hold on to what it has left while protecting both its troops and its populace from Russian attack. Before this aid package passed, the ratio of Russian weaponry to Ukrainian weaponry – whether it be Russian shells to Ukrainian shells, or cheap offensive Russian missiles versus expensive Ukrainian interceptor missiles – was growing increasingly unfavorable, and will continue to do so when this funding runs dry.
Given the steep advantage in shells and other ammunition that Russia enjoys, especially when there is little fear of Ukrainian counter-battery fire or airstrikes, Ukrainian forces will continue to be forced to withdraw from key cities. With enough momentum, Russia could even return to its ambition of taking Kiev and other major cities – places Putin had not dreamed of taking since the opening months of the war. However, if Russian artillery and air power are given free reign over the front lines, it could become a stark possibility.
This is the reality that some politicians fail to consider – the fact Ukraine’s existence continues to depend on U.S. aid. Putin will not come to the negotiating table when he smells blood. Johnson and others came to terms with these facts when choosing to push this bill through. Although I still am no fan of Johnson’s, I nonetheless appreciate he understands the gravity of this situation and what it means not just for Ukraine, but also democratic societies around the globe. Success for Putin in Ukraine means the start of a dangerous trend in a time where autocracy, nationalism (even in democracies) and the resulting irredentism and expansionism are on the rise.
Janagan Ramanathan is a Sartell High School alum, former U.S. Naval Academy midshipman and current aerospace engineering major at the University of Minnesota-Twin Cities.
